Exponential Change, and a Tweak to Moore’s Law on the Time to Double Computing Power
Moore’s law is slowing, a bit. The time to double computing power on a chip is now more in the range of 2.5 years, than 2 years, according to Intel’s CEO, as quoted in a July 16, 2015 Financial Times article. But given the levels of computing power that are doubling today, the growth in computing power is still incredible and exponential. According to the same article, Mr. Moore is surprised it took this long to reach change in the rule. The article explains:
“[The CEO’s] comments come just two months after celebrations marked 50 years since Gordon Moore made his prediction about the steadily increasing number of transistors that could fit on a single chip, in his 1965 article, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits.”
At a May event commemorating the anniversary at San Francisco’s Exploratorium, a science museum, Mr Moore said he was “amazed” that the law had held for so long.
“The original prediction was to look at 10 years, which I thought was a stretch . . . The fact that something similar is going on for 50 years is truly amazing.”
But he warned: “Someday it has to stop. No exponential like this goes on forever.”